March 25 Weekly Flood Risk and 2019 Spring Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 17.76 feet (Below Action Stage). There are no active forecasts issued for the lower Brazos River Watershed (downstream of Waco).

WGRFC 6:51 PM Brazos River at Richmond (03/25/19)

The past 7 days have been dry for much of the lower Brazos River Watershed. We continue to see Richmond stay relatively flat with a minor rise due to reservoir releases upstream of Hempstead. Depending on the amount of rain received today and the weekend, we could see the  Brazos River remain a couple of feet below Action Stage over the next several days.

NWS WGRFC Storm Forecast Summary (03/25/19 @ 1:11 PM)

Most of the region appeared to have another pleasant Spring Day with few across the region seeing any rain. The week appears to be the same with a few days of continued excellent weather. The sunny weather should hold on through Friday as we have another cold front moving through the region over the weekend. The current forecasts are showing about a 30 to 75% chance for rain starting Friday afternoon and running through Sunday.

NWS 7 Day Forecasts Image (03/25/19 @ 5:14 AM)

It is still unclear on the severity of the storms, but current forecasts are showing between 0.25 to 1.0 inches over the weekend. Rainfall 7-Day Precipitation Forecast (03/25/19 7:00 PM)

2019 NWS Spring Flood Outlook

NWS 2019 US Spring Flood Outlook Image

On March 21, the NWS released their 2019 National Hydrologic Assessment outlining the National Spring Outlook. As mentioned a few weeks ago, the NWS is anticipating a wetter than average spring. For much of the Mississippi River Basin, we are already experiencing major flooding in the upper portions of the basin due to record amounts of snow melt and rainfall. The Brazos River Watershed is not specifically discussed in the NWS’s report; however, they have shown the potential for Minor Flooding along the Brazos River. For reference, the NWS defines Minor Flooding as “minimal or no property damage, but possibly some public threat (e.g., inundation of roads).”

Remember that this is just an outlook and does not necessarily predict that flooding will happen. Check out our Stay Informed Page for ways to stay up to date about flood risks as they are predicted and occurring.

For more information on the NWS Spring Outlook, please visit their Website and  Story Map.  

Although this outlook does not represent actual flooding, it is a good reminder on the importance of Flood Insurance and being prepared. Remember, Flood damage is not typically covered by a homeowners insurance policy and typically, there’s a 30-day waiting period from date of purchase before your policy goes into effect.

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