March 18 Weekly Flood Risk **Updated March 21

Updated Post

Overall our rain chances over the next 2 to 4 days has dropped substantially since our Monday post. We continue to have an increased chance for rain Saturday and Sunday; however, the rain chances have appeared to drop right at or below 50%. Based on the reduced rain chances, some of the forecasts are showing less than a 0.10 inches of rain across the lower portions of the Brazos River (downstream of Waco) with the upper portions (upstream of Waco) receiving less than 1 inch.

PivotalWeather.com Rainfall 120-Hour Precipitation Forecast (03/21/19 7:00 AM)

Original Post

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 14.68 feet (Below Action Stage). There are no active forecasts issued for the lower Brazos River Watershed (downstream of Waco).

WGRFC 8:50 PM Brazos River at Richmond (03/18/19)

Although we stayed relatively dry over the past week, we have seen the Brazos River rise due to rains and reservoir releases upstream of Hempstead. Overall we have seen an rise of approximately 3.75 feet in Hempstead, which appears to be leveling off near Gage 18.4 to 18.5 feet. Over the next day or so we could see Richmond continue to rise slightly, but we should remain below Action Stage possibly leveling off near Gage 16.7 to 17.4.

Over the past few days we have seen mostly sunny skies which should continue through the majority of the week with lows in the 50s and 60s and highs in the low 70s. Our rain changes remain low through Friday when showers and thunderstorms potentially make their way through the region over the weekend.

NWS 7 Day Forecasts Image (03/18/19 @ 6:14 AM)

Based on this morning’s forecasts, we could see between 0.5 and 1.0 inches of rain across the lower portions of the Brazos River (downstream of Hempstead) with the upper portions (upstream of Hempstead) receiving 1.5 to 2.0+ inches. There is confidence in the rainfall chances; however, at this time there is low confidence in the actual rainfall totals.

PivotalWeather.com Rainfall 7-Day Precipitation Forecast (03/18/19 7:00 PM)
NWS WGRFC Storm Forecast Summary (03/19/19 @ 9:02 AM)
NWS WGRFC Storm Forecast Summary (03/18/19 @ 10:00 AM)

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