Based on the Calendar, Fall is here…

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 10.7. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River is anticipated.

WGRFC Brazos River at Richmond (09/23/2019)

This Week

Today is the Autumnal Equinox which marks the first day of fall. Typically, fall welcomes us with highs in the upper 70s or the low 80s, but this fall appears to have missed the memo. Additionally, we usually look forward to our first cold front of the year, which so far, is not in our immediate future. SpaceCityWeather has a good summary of Fall and our first cold front in today’s post.

That being said, after a week of heavy rainfall, this week should be a return of drier conditions. We do have a chance of rain today as showers could move through portions of the region. Some of these storms could be severe with 2 to 3 inches of rain in less than 2 hours, but the heaviest rain should remain to our east. As of this afternoon, we have seen minor amounts of rain occur over portions of Fort Bend County with the peak around 0.52 inches in Sugar Land.

NWS Autumnal Equinox (09/23/2019)

After today, our rain chances drop to below 25% with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for most of the region. Overall the forecasts are showing Fort Bend County and the Lower Brazos River Watershed receiving less than ½ inch over the next 7 days. 7-Day Forecast (09/23/2019)

The Tropics

Earlier this morning, the National Hurricane Center was only tracking TS Jerry, TS Karen, and now TS Lorenzo. At this moment, none of these systems are expected to impact the western Gulf of Mexico.

National Hurricane Center 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

There has been some questions about whether or not Karen could work its way across Florida and enter the Western Gulf of Mexico, but at this time, it is too early to tell what will happen as it moves north. But like we mentioned, no one is overly concern about Karen at this time.

NHC TS Karen Advisory 6A (09/23/2019)

Between starting to draft this post, to now publishing, the NHC is watching a new disturbance which is located off the northeast tip of the Yucatan pensinsula. Quick disturbances in the Gulf of Mexico can make many people along the Texas coastline nervous, but the good news is that the current forecasts have this system continuing to move west, staying in the southwest portion of the Gulf of Mexico. It currently has a 20% chance of developing and could reach the eastern coast of Mexico late Friday or into Saturday.

NHC Disturbance No. 1 Tropical Weather Outlook (09/23/2019)

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