March 4 Weekly Flood Risk and Current Reservoir Status

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 16.78 feet (Below Action Stage).

WGRFC 11:27 AM Brazos River at Richmond (03/04/19)

Over the past 24 to 48 hours, we have seen a slight rise in the lower portions of the Brazos River, downstream of Waco. This is primarily due to upstream reservoir conditions. We could see the Brazos River through Richmond rise another 6 to 12 inches; however, we do not anticipate any issues as we should stay below Action Stage.

The current 10 day forecast shows mainly partly cloudy to cloudy skies with increased rain chances Thursday through Saturday. Richmond, Texas Extended Forecast (03/04/2019)

The NWS has issued a Freeze Watch for much of Southeast Texas through early Tuesday Morning. Based on some of the forecasts, we could see the region upgraded to a freeze warning later today.

NWS Houston/Galveston Monday Rain Chances (03/04/19 @ 4:38 AM)
NWS Houston/Galveston Tuesday Freeze (03/04/19 @ 4:38 AM)

Starting Wednesday night and into Thursday morning we could see a return of southerly flow that will push us back into warmer/muggier conditions, increasing our rain chances. As of this morning’s forecast, we have increased rain chances on Thursday (less than 50%) with increasing chances through Saturday (greater than 75% chance). There is still some uncertainty and low confidence in the models, but the current forecast is showing much of the lower Brazos River Watershed receiving less than 1 inch of rain over the next 7 days. Rainfall 7-Day Precipitation Forecast (03/04/19 7:00 AM)

Current Reservoir Status

Since all but 1 reservoir are above their conservation pool, we continue to watch the conditions through the entire watershed. Full reservoirs are a positive for water supply, but it means that the majority of rainfall received is released directly through the various control structures downstream through the lower basin. Lake Whitney, which is our southernmost flood control reservoir, is currently 1.72 inches below its conservation pool.

Brazos River Authority Drought Monitor and Reservoir Capacity Indicator (02/28/19)
USACE Brazos River Basin Reservoir Status (03/04/19 @ 0821 CST)

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