Outlook for Texas improving, but heavy rain headed for Louisiana

10 AM Update

As of 10 AM this morning, the NHC has officially declared Potential Tropical Cyclone #2 as Tropical Storm Barry. No other major changes to the forecast path and/or impacts to Texas have been made since our update this morning.

National Hurricane Center Advisory 5 (07/11/2019 @ 10 AM)

Original Post

Over the past 24 hours, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two has continued to slowly develop and is expected to become a tropical depression later today. Based on this morning’s forecast, it could develop into a Tropical Storm on Friday and possibly a Hurricane late Friday or Saturday morning. There still remains some uncertainty in the ultimate track; however, confidence continues to grow that the system will make landfill near the central part of Louisiana.  Flooding as already occurred in portions of Louisiana with an additional 10 to 15 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches as the result of this system expected over the next several days.

NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (07/11/2019 @ 4:02 AM)

Locally, the impacts to Fort Bend County and the areas west of Houston should be minimal. This morning’s forecast is showing our area receiving less than one inch through Tuesday morning. But we all need to continue to monitor for any changes in the track and intensity which can have an impact on final rainfall amounts.

NHC 7 Day Rainfall Forecast (07/11/2019 @ 3:54 AM)
PivotalWeather.com Rainfall 5-Day Precipitation Forecast (07/11/2019 7:00 AM)

Although this system is showing signs of being less of an impact to our area, we continue to encourage residents to:

  • Monitor Forecasts Twice a Day. Check out the NHC’s video on understanding the Cone of Uncertainty.

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