The National Hurricane Center has upgraded the tropical depression to Tropical Storm Cristobal. There have been no significant changes in the overall track for the storm since last night. The NHC continues to show Cristobal floating around the southern Gulf of Mexico just north of the Mexico coastline bringing additional heavy rain to already hit portions of Mexico and Central America.
The latest NHC track continues to show TS Cristobal moving north across the Gulf of Mexico. There is still a good amount of uncertainty with the forecast past Friday afternoon, but the most recent round of models does suggest possible landfall somewhere along the Louisiana coast. This would be good news for much of Texas since the most severe rainfall would occur on the “wet” or right side of the center. I use “would” purposely given the uncertainties in the path. Until the storm starts to head out of the Bay of Campeche, we could continue to see shifts in the ultimate path and intensity.
The only good news we are certain of is that all the Brazos River Gages continue to fall. All should return to our historical averages by Saturday with our reservoirs having plenty of flood storage available.
We will continue to monitor the development of this system and provide updates as we approach the weekend. We encourage everyone to continue to monitor the forecasts published by the National Hurricane Center and stay informed through the Houston/Galveston NWS Office, the West Gulf River Forecast Center, and the Fort Bend County Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management.
Regardless of the development and path of this system, use this time wisely to prepare for this Hurricane Season. Even if it does not impact the State of Texas, now is the best time to prepare so that you are ready for when the next storm hits. Remember it is not a question of if we will have another flood or Tropical Storm hit our region, but when. We encourage everyone to visit Ready.Gov to assist you in your preparations.
Flood Risk on the Bend 