Flood Risk on the Bend

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 20.26 and falling. The WGRFC predicts that the Brazos River through Richmond will fall out of Action Stage this evening. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

The current forecast includes a mixture of sunny to partly cloudy skies throughout the week. Our high temperatures should be in the upper 80s to low 90s with our low temperatures in the low the mid-70s. Our rain chances remain relatively low for the majority of the week with the possibility of increased rain chances into the weekend into the start of next week. The NWS 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) shows the Watershed upstream of Richmond possibly receiving up to 1.0 inch with Richmond and downstream receiving up to 1.5 to 2.0 inches over the next 7 days. This will all depend on the development a tropical system moving north through the Gulf of Mexico, but we should have a few days of warm, drier weather.

Possible Gulf Development

Everyone continues to watch the remnants of TS Amanda that has been pushing over Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula. Over the past 24 hours, the National Hurricane Center has slowly increased the chance for this system to reemerge as Cristobal. As anticipated, the remnants, now TD 3, have moved over the Bay of Campeche and have become re-established.

The current NHC forecast shows this system becoming Tropical Storm Cristobal sometime over the next 12 to 24 hours. Confidence in the 24 to 36 hour forecast is high; however, after 36 hours the confidence drop. Space City Weather’s 4:32 PM update said it best:

And the most important message I want to leave you with today is that we are a long way from knowing where this system is going, and what it’s going to do… The forecast models are really struggling with what happens this week as the storm swirls around the Bay of Campeche. Because of this, it is hard to have much confidence in what happens after the next four days. However, the most likely outcome is that some kind of tropical system will eventually move northward toward the Central Gulf of Mexico by Friday or Saturday. Unfortunately, it’s difficult to know how strong it will be, and where it will go thereafter.

Excerpts from Space City Weather 4:32 PM Update (https://spacecityweather.com/tropical-depression-forms-in-the-gulf-but-we-still-dont-know-much/)

We will continue to monitor the development of this system and provide updates as we approach the weekend. We encourage everyone to continue to monitor the forecasts published by the National Hurricane Center and stay informed through the Houston/Galveston NWS Office, the West Gulf River Forecast Center, and the Fort Bend County Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management.

Hurricane Season officially starts today, June 1. Please use the current forecast as motivation to start your Hurricane Preparations TODAY. For more information, please visit NWS Flood Safety,  Ready.gov, and FloodSmart.gov.