The NWS has expanded Today’s risk for severe thunderstorms. The majority of our Region has either a “Slight” chance for scattered severe storms or “Enchanced” chance of numerous severe storms this afternoon.
The system should hit the Bryan/College Station later this afternoon (3 to 5 PM) as it continues to the greater Houston area (5 to 8 PM). One of the biggest threats from this system is the potential for strong winds and large hail (up to golf ball size).
Along with the risk of hail and strong winds, this system could produce heavy rainfall. The majority of our region could see between 0.5 to 1.0 inches with isolated areas receiving 3 to 5 inches. This system could produce rainfall intensities around 2 to 3 inches per hour which could cause flash flooding conditions in low areas as well as street ponding.
Based on the foretasted rainfall, the WGRFC Brazos River Forecasts for Richmond, San Felipe and Hempstead are all showing a slight leveling/increase over the next 48 hours, but continuing to fall. Based on the forecasts, no flooding from the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.
There is a chance for some light scatter showers on Friday morning; however, we should get a break from the wet weather with a return of partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies with highs in the low 70s.
Our rain chances increase on Saturday as a strong upper level storm moves through the region on Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Currently this system is forecasted to be less severe than Friday’s storms, but we could experience another round of strong winds and large hail.
This system could also bring another round of heavy rainfall, but overall the forecasts are showing less severe rainfall amounts than today’s storms. Based on the forecasts, our region could see an additional inch of rainfall on Saturday and Sunday bringing the total rainfall through Tuesday morning between 1.5 to 3 inches with isolated areas with higher amounts.
Although we do not anticipate flooding due to the Brazos River, today’s actual rainfall will determine how the River responds and ultimately how the weekend rainfall will impact the watershed. We will continue to monitor the conditions and provide updates if needed.
We encourage everyone to continue to follow the Fort Bend County Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management, the National Weather Service, the West Gulf River Forecast Center, and SpaceCityWeather for updates.
Additional Information from the NWS:
Urban Flash Flood Messaging
– Drive with caution. Cars may flood in low-lying areas. Ponding on roadways may increase risk of hydroplaning.
– Pay attention to the weather. Monitor the NWS, your local media, HCFCD and other official weather information sources.
– Rain may move repeatedly across the same area, causing a rapid rise on creeks and bayous. However, creeks and bayous are not likely to exceed their banks.