Flood Risk on the Bend

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 27.85 (In Action Stage). The Brazos River peaked around 27.97 early Monday morning and has started to fall. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

The region should experience partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies through Wednesday. High temperatures for the majority of the week should be in the upper 70s to low 80s with our low temperatures in the mid-50s to upper 60s.

The extended forecast does show an increased chance for rain starting on Thursday and possibly running into early next week. Based on the NWS WPC 7-Day QPF, the upper portions of the Brazos River Watershed, from Lake Whitney (Upstream of Waco) to Navasota could see approximately 2 to 2.5 inches. The current forecast shows these rainfall amounts decreasing downstream with the lower portions of the Watershed, including Fort Bend County potentially receiving 1.5 to 2.0 inches over the next 7 days. The majority of this rainfall could occur Friday to Sunday.

The confidence in the extended forecast remains low. It is too early to know the accuracy of these rainfall amounts and its potential impacts on the Brazos River, but based on the current forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated over the next 7 to 10 days. We will continue to monitor the forecasts for any changes that occur as we approach the middle to end of the week.

Early April Outlook

The NWS Weather Prediction Center has issued/updated their Outlook to start the month of April. Based on the forecast, we have a higher probability of seeing below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation to start the month of April. From NWS Houston/Galveston Office:

The early April weather pattern is forecast to be more cloudy & wet. More frequent western weather disturbance passages will thicken up clouds, produce more precipitation. This will create a “cooling” effect & may provide some relief to our recent drought conditions.

NWS Houston/Galveston March 29, 2020 Tweet

Having flood insurance is the best way to protect your homes and businesses from the cost of flood damages and loss. Without insurance, assistant primarily comes in the form of loans. If your community is declared a disaster area, no-interest or low-interest loans are often made available by the federal government as part of the recovery effort. However, these loans must be paid back, which means you’re still liable for the entire cost of your damages or losses. We never know when the next flood will occur so plan ahead and start your preparations now. For more information, please visit NWS Flood Safety,  Ready.gov, and FloodSmart.gov.