Flood Risk on the Bend

BRAZOS RIVER 03/26/2020 2:45 PM UPDATE

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 27.58 and continuing to slowly rise. The WGRFC 2:06 PM forecast shows the Brazos River peaking around Gage Elevation 30.4 feet on Tuesday morning. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

We are continuing to watch for the return of rain which could move through the Region early next week. Based on the forecasts, the majority of the heaviest rainfall is currently located outside of the Brazos River watershed. That should limit our risk for flood impacts along the Brazos, but it could keep the Brazos River elevated through Fort Bend County with Richmond remaining in Action Stage through the first week or so of April.

Based on the current forecasts, the upper portions of the Brazos River Watershed (upstream of Hempstead) could see between 0.5 to 1.25 inches over the next 7 days. The lower portions of the watershed, especially through Fort Bend County could see between 0.25 to 0.75 inches. The majority of this rainfall could occur Sunday through Wednesday.

Many may not be aware, but Fort Bend County has added a gage at FM 1489 that measures the elevation of the River and the rainfall. It will not be a forecast point by the NWS, but it will give the western portions of Fort Bend County another source of information that could be used local to help forecast and observe the conditions closer than the San Felipe and Richmond gages. The gage can be found at on the Harris County Flood Warning Site.

BRAZOS RIVER 03/25/2020 9:15 AM UPDATE

The Brazos River in Richmond continues to climb and is currently at Gage Elevation 25.21. The WGRFC 8:15 AM Forecast shows the Brazos River peaking around Gage Elevation 30 feet. The biggest change with this morning’s forecast is that the peak now occurs on Monday, March 30 with no specifics on the Brazos River falling through the Forecast Window. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

There continues to be little to no rain in the forecast for the next 3 to 4 days; however, we are watching for the chance of additional rainfall toward the beginning of next week. Based on the forecasts, this should not create major issues along the Brazos River except to maybe keep us elevated. We will continue to monitor the conditions and for changes in the various forecast and update this post accordingly. Over the weekend, we will most likely include an entirely new post on what we could expect to start next week.

BRAZOS RIVER 03/24/2020 1:30 PM UPDATE

The Brazos River in Richmond reach Action Stage around 7 AM this morning and is currently at 21.12. The WGRFC 11:34 AM Forecast shows the Brazos River peaking around Gage Elevation 30.8 feet on Friday morning or afternoon. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

Original Post

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 15.88 and rising based on the weekend rainfall and upstream reservoir releases. The WGRFC anticipates the Brazos River reaching Action Stage on Tuesday morning and peaking around Gage Elevation 31.1 feet on Friday morning. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

After several days of wet weather, the Region along with much of the State of Texas will see warmer, sunnier weather. Highs for the week should be in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s before our next cold front potentially arrives on Sunday.

Rain chances remain low over the next several days with our highest chance for rain occurring tomorrow. The NWS forecast is showing the majority of the Brazos River Watershed including Fort Bend County seeing less than ¼ inch of rainfall over the next 5 to 7 days.

With the limited amount of rainfall in the forecast, we do not anticipate major changes in the Brazos River Forecast; however, we will continue to monitor the conditions and provide updates as necessary.

According to FEMA, from 1996 to 2019, 99% of all Counties within the United States has been impacted by a flood event. We never know when the next flood will occur so plan ahead and start your preparations now. For more information, please visit NWS Flood Safety,  Ready.gov, and FloodSmart.gov.