Thursday’s Tropical Update, the Brazos River Remains low and in Good Shape

As we have mentioned before, we are continuing to watch the tropical disturbance; however, we do no expect it to hit the Texas Coast.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances to 80% of this disturbance developing in a Tropical System over the next 5 days. If it does it would be Nestor.

NWS Houston/Galveston Tropical Weather Outlook (10/17/2019)

Regardless of development, this system will increase chances for rain from the Texas to Florida Coast. 7-Day Rainfall Forecast for the Continental US (10/17/2019)

The good news is that the heaviest rainfall will remain to our east which continues to pull east of the Louisiana Coast. The even better news is that it will bring some much needed rain to portions of East Texas. Overall, the lower Brazos River watershed along with Fort Bend County could see between 1 to 1.5 inches over the next 7 days. 7-Day Rainfall Forecast Loop for South Central Texas (10/17/2019) 7-Day Rainfall Forecast for South Central US (10/17/2019)

PSA for Flood Reports

It always amazes me when I get a question or read a post that appears to confusion the various weather reports and what it means to flooding. Yesterday afternoon, I was about to start a meeting when the community and they received an email about the “record flooding” that was about to occur on the Brazos river and asked why the community was not communicating with its residents. Thinking there was no way we could be missing anything, our first reaction was to immediately look at the various gauges and as we expected, there was no threat of “record flooding” occurring in any location along the Brazos River.

TexasFlood.Org Screen Shot – Green Means Good (10/17/2019)

I only share this story as a reminder to be cautious when viewing weather information published on various social media outlets, like Facebook and Nextdoor, that are not from knowledgeable searches. Good sources are SpaceCityWeather, the West Gulf River Forecast Center,, your local Community, the Fort Bend County Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management , and this site. Just know that all of us work hard on watching the conditions and will put out accurate information on any threats that we face.

That being side, there is no current threat of flooding along the Brazos River. In fact, the River is continuing to run below normal as portions upstream of Fort Bend County remain in a moderate to extreme drought conditions.

NWS WGRFC Brazos River at Richmond (10/17/2019)

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