The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 10.37. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, we could see a rise in the Brazos River through Fort Bend County. It is too early to tell to what level, but major flooding is not anticipated at this time.
A tropical disturbance is currently located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a 10% chance of development. Regardless of its development, the region is expected to receive heavy rainfall throughout the week.
The current forecasts are showing the potential for widespread rainfall amounts between 3 to 6 inches through Thursday with isolated areas seeing amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches. We will see showers starting to move through the region Monday and Tuesday with the heaviest rainfall potentially falling Wednesday and Thursday.
The good news is that our soils are extremely dry with the majority of our reservoir levels below their conservation pool.
That being said, the volume of rainfall received today and tomorrow could saturate our soils before the heaviest rainfall occurs. This condition along with potential rainfall intensities of 2 to 3 inches per hour with isolated areas of 3 to 4 inches per hour could cause some localized street and stream flooding.
We encourage everyone to continue to follow the Fort Bend County Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management, the National Weather Service, the West Gulf River Forecast Center, and SpaceCityWeather for updates throughout the week as conditions can and will change.