The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 34.53 feet (Action Flood Stage) and is forecasted to remain elevated around Gage 34.6 through the remainder of the week.
We are watching a disturbance, Invest 91L, located in the western Gulf of Mexico. The NHC is giving this disturbance a 60% chance of developing within the next 48 hours.
The current models show this system continuing to move in a north-northwestern direction with a possible track turning north-northeast along the Texas Coast.
Regardless of the development of this system, we could see increased rain chances in the region starting Tuesday night / Wednesday morning running through Friday. Based on the current conditions and forecasts, the greater Houston area could see between 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over the next 7 days; however, actual rainfall totals will be dependent on the track of this system.
Beginning from Wednesday morning, rain chances will be higher in Houston, above 70 percent, and still higher on Thursday as the bulk of the disturbance moves near Houston. Tropical air masses are especially efficient at producing heavy rainfall, but again we’re hoping that the best conditions for heavy rain will set up offshore. If that happens, most of Houston should see 1 to 3 inches of rain through Thursday night, with potentially a few higher bullseyes of perhaps 5 inches of greater. If the tropical disturbance plows into Houston, rain totals will be greater, but for now we expect the former scenario.SpaceCityWeather.com, Tropical disturbance brings high rain chances to Houston this week, June 3, 2019