Unpredictable Texas Weather and the Brazos River

WGRFC Event Briefing (05/08/2019)

To say everyone was surprised by yesterday’s storm is an understatement. On Tuesday, we experienced significant rainfall rates in the Rosenberg to Sugar Land area through central Fort Bend County. In the Rosenberg area, one CoCoRaHS observer recorded 11.72 inches over a 6 hour period. In Sugar Land, the Fort Bend LID 2 Ditch H at Ditch A structure recorded approximately 10.64 inches within a 6 hour period. Many personal weather stations made similar observations showing that a significant portion of central Fort Bend County averaged 8 to 10+ inches on Tuesday. According to preliminary rainfall information, areas within Fort Bend County experienced rainfall rates similar to what we experienced in Hurricane Harvey.

NWS Houston/Galveston Estimated Tuesday Rainfall Totals (05/08/2019)

We continue to have the threat for severe, heavy rainfall starting this afternoon and running through the weekend. The current forecasts are showing that the most significant rainfall over the next 24 to 48 hours staying to our north, but our region could see another 1 to 2 inches through Thursday. Based on the current forecasts, our biggest threat for heavy rain could occur Thursday and run through Saturday.

NWS Houston/Galveston Storm Prediction Center Outlook (05/08/2019)
NWS Houston/Galveston WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook (05/08/2019)
NWS Houston/Galveston Weather Prediction Center Outlook (05/08/2019)

Overall between now through Monday morning our region has the potential for widespread rainfall amounts between 5 to 8 inches with isolated areas possible seeing 9 to 12 inches.

PivotalWeather.com Rainfall 120 Hour Precipitation Forecast (05/13/2019 7:00 AM) 

The Brazos River

Based on the rainfall received several streams in Fort Bend County experienced flash flooding conditions with rapid rises over a short period. The Brazos River in Hempstead was not impacted from Tuesday’s storms and peaked around Gage 46.84 early this morning. San Felipe was also not impacted by this event and is forecasted to hit Gage Elevation 119.6 tomorrow morning. The Brazos River in Richmond experienced a 3 foot rise during yesterday’s storm and the 8:39 AM forecast shows the Brazos River in Richmond staying elevated through Saturday morning with a peak near Gage Elevation 47.2 feet.

WGRFC 8:39 AM Brazos River at Richmond (05/08/2019)

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