We continue to watch for the potential for severe weather to move through our region. Overall the largest threat of this system appears to be the possibility of strong winds and hail; however, we cannot rule out the possibility of some minor flooding in portions of the North to Southeast Texas.
The system should start to work its way through north Texas by mid-late afternoon while it works its way through southeast Texas.
Here in the Greater Houston Area, the most severe weather is forecasted to move into the region late this evening or early tomorrow morning. The forecasts are currently showing the most severe weather remaining within the northern side of the region, but as we saw this past weekend, that does not mean we do not have the potential to see strong winds and hail in Fort Bend County.
As shown in some of the forecasts, the initial threat, which is focused more on areas west and northwest, are the chances for large hail and strong damaging winds. However, as this system moves eastward, we should see it weaken as it approaches I-45. The bad news is that as it weakens, the speed could decrease bringing the potential for heavier rainfall, especially for areas north of I-10.
Depending on the final development of this system, the areas north of I-10 could see rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches and isolated higher amounts. For those of us south of I-10, we could see totals of 0.5 to 2 inches.
The Brazos River
In Richmond, we are currently at Gage Elevation 24.1 feet. We are still slightly trending up from last weekend storms, but overall we should be near the peak from those storms and could see the river begin to fall later today. As shown in the current forecast, we could see the river drop below Action Stage, but then possibly rise to Action Stage due to the rainfall received upstream of I-10. We will have to wait until the storm passes through the watershed, but based on the current forecasts, we should still remain in the lower portion of Action Stage. But again, this will be completely dependent on the final amounts of rainfall received.