The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 17.9 feet (Below Action Stage).
February 15 marked the first time since December 6, 2018 that we dropped below Action Stage. In fact, before February 15, we spent 119 days out of 122 days in Action Stage which started on October 17, 2018. February looks to be a wet month, so we will see if we can stay below Action Stage.
Today looks to be a relative wet day. Overall we could see the majority of the Brazos River Watershed receiving less than a 0.5 inch over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Similar to today, the majority of the week looks to be a wet and gloomy one. Tomorrow and Sunday we could see some partly cloudy to sunny skies, but the remainder of the week includes a 50% to 75% chance of showers with the potential for some AM thunderstorms. Overall the rainfall should be light, but we could see some brief heavy showers. There is the possibility of some minor flooding in parts of the region, but those appear to be to our east.
Over the next 7 days, the region could experience rainfall totals between 0.5 to 1.5 inches. Based on the current projections, the majority of the lower Brazos River Watershed could see between 1 to 1.5 inches.
Based on some of the extended forecasts, we could see this wet weather pattern stick around through the end of February.
El Nino Conditions
Over the weekend there was a good amount of discussion on NOAA declaring that El Nino Conditions are now present. Their statement can be found here, but here is summary statement their publication: “Due to the expected weak strength, widespread or significant global impacts are not anticipated. However, the impacts often associated with El Nino may occur in some locations during the next few months (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday February 21st).”
Flood Risk on the Bend 