January 4 – Increased Flood Risk

Over the past 12 to 18 hours we have seen reductions in the forecasts in some of the gages upstream of Hempstead, with only minor changes to Hempstead, San Felipe, and Richmond Gages. As of 9:11 AM, the WGRFC has reduced the peak in Hempstead to Gage Elevation 51.3 feet occurring on Sunday morning. The current forecast has San Felipe peaking around Gage Elevation 121.4 feet on Monday morning. Both the Hempstead and San Felipe forecasts are showing a relative quick fall once they hit their peaks.

WGRFC 9:0 AM Forecasts for the Brazos River in Hempstead and San Felipe

The forecast in Richmond is currently showing Gage Elevation 44.8 feet. Based on information published this morning, the current forecast for Richmond is starting to show a potential crest at Gage Elevation 44.8.

WGRFC 9:13 AM Forecast for the Brazos River in Richmond

Flooding from the Brazos River is not anticipated through Fort Bend County; however, we could see inundation of some of our low lying areas as well as rises within the tributaries of the Brazos. For reference, the forecasted elevation is almost 4 feet higher than what we saw on January 1t and about 6.5 feet higher than the current level of the Brazos River in Richmond.

While the river is elevated, we need to continue to pay close attention for any changes to the forecast and any potential rainfall over the next 7 to 10 days. The good news is that the current extended forecast is showing sunny to partly cloudy skies over the next 10 days with less than 50% chance for rain Monday through Wednesday. Per the NWS, the forecasted rainfall totals for the region are less than 0.5 inch over the next 7 days.

NOAA 7 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

Please continue to follow the official forecasts by the West Gulf River Forecast Center (WGRFC), the NWS Houston-Galveston Office, and notices from the Fort Bend County Office of Emergency Management for more information as things develop.

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