Currently, the Greater Houston Area, including the Lower Portions of the Brazos River Watershed is foretasted to receive between 2 to 5 inches over the next 12 to 24 hours with isolated areas receiving 8 to 10 inches. Below is the latest image from the NWS – Houston/Galveston.
With the preliminary rainfall amounts and short duration, we have an increased risk of street ponding with local rises in our creeks and streams occurring Friday night. This is particularly the case in areas with a history of ponding and/or poor conveyance. Please visit the Flood Safety – TADD for tips on being flood safe.
Based on the current Forecast, the WGRFC has issued a forecast on the Brazos River for the majority of gages within the Watershed. The 1:15 PM Forecast shows the Brazos River hitting Gage 41.8 feet, or elevation 68.8 feet.
Although the Brazos River appears to flatten out on December 12, we need to consider the following. The WGRFC produces their forecasts using a certain time in the future from the published forecast. These forecasts are typically a 5 day outlook, which means that the current published forecast may not capture the actual peak on the Brazos River in Richmond. For this event we need to look at the whole watershed picture, especially what happens in Hempstead. Additionally, the Brazos River typically takes between 3 to 4 days for the peak in Hempstead to reach Richmond.
Currently the WGRFC is forecasting the Brazos River in Hempstead to reach Gage 51.7 feet on December 11.
From what we have seen historically, when Hempstead hits Gage 50+, we have seen Gage 48+ in Richmond approximately 3 to 4 days later. Based on this history, if Hempstead hits Gage 51.7 on December 11, we could potentially see between 48 and 50 on December 14.
This information is preliminary and highly dependent on the actual amount and duration of rainfall received from this event. It is one opinion using historical information; however, every storm is different.