As many believed, Tropcial Disturbance No. 1 would not develop into a tropical cyclone and as of this morning is no longer a concern of the National Hurricane Center.
Even though the disturbance is no longer physically being shown on the map, the system will still bring some much needed rain to the area. Below is the latest extended forecast from the Houston/Galveston National Weather Service.
Overall the greater Houston area is still expected to receive between 2 to 5 inches with isolated areas receiving more (or less).
In general the greater Houston area fairs well with these types of events. 2 to 5 inches over 2 or 3 days is not traditionally a major concern. Our biggest threat is from short, high intensity duration downpours. With our current drought conditions, some areas may see a delay in any flooding impacts until later on Monday into Tuesday. In urban areas like Houston and areas with historical ponding issues, high rain rates in storms on Sunday could lead to street ponding and rapid rises on bayous. These impacts will even be possible into Monday.
The forecasted rainfall amounts do not typically cause an extreme rise on the Brazos River, but depending on the final rainfall location and amount, we could see some rise on the river.
We have been watching this system for more than a week and at the end of the day, it looks like it could be a minor event. SpaceCityWeather said it best in their post this morning:
What concerns me is that we have now been writing about this event for a week, and there is a non-trivial chance that for much of Houston this will not be more than a few significant thunderstorms. This sort of rainfall does not warrant the amount of attention it has received. And if Houston does receive the 2-4 inches of rain over a few days that we anticipate, it will degrade public confidence in meteorology as the hype will not match reality—i.e. the boy who cried wolf. I understand that people are highly sensitized after Hurricane Harvey, but every storm is not Harvey (or even close). So I just wanted to reiterate what I wrote at the outset of hurricane season: “Social mediarology” plays on the fears of people, and therefore tends to get shared widely. If you’ll promise to not fall for these kinds of fear-mongering posts, we’ll make a pledge to you: If we believe there is a credible threat to Houston, we will report that immediately. And if we haven’t written about it, the post you’ve seen on Facebook is probably garbage. Fortunately we have a sponsor like Reliant, which doesn’t value clicks, but rather reliability.
Their commitment is one of many reasons why I trust and promote SpaceCityWeather.com as a local source of information over many of your local TV stations. All storm events have some variability, but they work to stick to the facts and do not over hype the situation. I do think we have some of the best local TV new sources in the Country, but as they compete for views they can sometimes dramatize situations with graphics and hypothetical models.
But as always, always trust these sources over random social media posts.
Flood Risk on the Bend 